论辩

与自由主义不同,这里我们要讨论的命题是自由秩序:自由主义是一个内涵丰富、不断重塑的传统;自由秩序则是关于一种主导力量如何主宰世界的方法。我认为这个概念是自相矛盾的。世界充满了太多危险、冲突,根本不可能被“自由地”统治,如果过分执着于在国外传播民主,则会使民主在内部遭到摧毁。历史表明,即使在建立共识性的体系和对话方面,也存在着不自由和强制性的成分。这些黑暗面,即权力的虚伪,并非例外,而是整个体系的必要组成部分。这种秩序一部分是帝国主义逻辑驱动的等级统治,另一部分是无政府主义逻辑下的安全竞争,以及反复出现的自由主义冲动。48后者既代表着重商主义,也象征着“自由”。它更多地依赖于特权而不是规则。它就如同是一个自由主义的卡米洛特神话,背后是一种更深层次的神话,即相信存在不强制的强权政治,也相信存在摆脱帝国主义的帝国政治。

这些问题的根源主要不是美国的政治文化,而是国际社会的悲剧性。在一个本身就不安全的世界里,建立秩序是一个不自由的过程,一个暴力和强制的过程,它迫使自由价值观和残酷的强权政治之间达成妥协。即使是最高尚的海外项目也需要与非自由主义势力合作,无论他们是独裁者、狂热分子还是犯罪分子。即使是跨大西洋地区最令人刻骨铭心、最令人感怀的事件,即在第二次世界大战中击败轴心国,也是通过对斯大林领导下的苏联采取了绥靖政策才得以实现的。

建立秩序本质上是一种帝国行径。所谓“帝国”,依我所见,是指其或直接或间接地对另一个国家的内政行使支配和权力主导。美国的治国之道不仅追求自由解放,也满怀掌控之欲,就如同一个“十字军”国家,不光要解放其他国家,还要按照美国的方式决定它们的道路。49这种统治并不是真正的吞并,美国的独特之处在于,它是一种非正式的帝国模式,但它能够产生长期、持续、稳定的影响,与间接统治没有太大区别。一旦出现一方感到契约中的某些不公平因素而拒绝,或一方迫于巨大代价的压力而不断妥协,那么两者之间的关系实际上就变成了统治者和被统治者之间的关系。50

在世界上建立秩序,就意味着其他人要接受领导,如果不听劝诱,则强行使其服从。要求他人服从和遵守规则的秩序权力也将保留其不受约束的特权,因为它是“特别的”。正如伊肯伯里所描述的,这就是我们所说的帝国逻辑。在对乔治·W.布什(George W.Bush)总统的外交政策表示不满时,伊肯伯里指出:“布什的外交政策为世界提供了一个美国统治世界,但美国可以不遵守规则的体系。这实际上就是‘帝国’行径。”51事实确实如此。然而,这也勾勒出了美国一直以来的霸权主义。

自由秩序的主张,本应有助于建立信任、削弱无政府主义的力量,但它低估了安全困境的问题。因为在采取措施增加安全性的同时,也会加剧不安全感,这本身就是一个悖论。即使是最善意、温和的世界秩序,在对手和潜在对手看来也带有敌意和威胁。新兴大国所追求的利益和谐与一套道德上显而易见的做法,服务于不言自明的、永不过时的共同利益原则,但在其他一些人看来,为了自我利益而采取强制手段,是披着“道德普世主义”(moral universalism)外衣的利己主义行为。曾经经历过掠夺和被掠夺历史的竞争对手和敌人,都担心霸权一边强调规则秩序,一边又赋予自己特权,通过改变或破坏规则来巩固自己的优势,极力避开协议的束缚,肆意打击报复。从美国的对手长期以来的遭遇来看,很难辨清美国到底是仁慈霸权(benevolent hegemony)还是邪恶霸权。霸权国家可能真的相信自己的主张——认为它并不实行“势力范围”、扩张或贸易保护主义等丑陋的强权政治。但这会使情况更加糟糕,因为霸权国家会无意识地实施扩张,而表面上的温和一旦遭到了抵抗,它们便会感到意外和震惊。

自由主义秩序在战争方面也存在问题。它创始之初的信条是“独裁和军国主义国家发动战争;民主国家制造和平……这是威尔逊主义的基石,更广泛地说,也是自由主义的国际传统”52。然而,这种信条带有好战的倾向。所谓为民主创造一个安全的世界,很容易演变为使世界民主化。它很容易进一步陷入自负的幻想,即“我们的”行动本质上是和平的,好战的根源在于其他外界力量。问题不是来自悲剧性的相互作用,而是来自邪恶的外部力量,它们结集在一起针对美国这个善良的英雄国家。反过来,这种逻辑为以正义之名使用武力提供了理由。严格按照自己的意愿来维持永久的世界秩序,就需要常规的军事行动,偶尔也会提升到暴力的强度。那些支持回归自由秩序的人通常要求更多的力量投送、更强有力的联盟承诺,以及更广泛的军事存在,而不是减少。尽管这些狂热者不断大肆鼓吹军事部署、军事联盟、联合军事演习、军事理论和军事能力,批评那些放弃军事力量的做法,但他们明显羞于提及那些以理想名义发动的战争和由此导致的后果。这种通过对外投送军事力量来维持国际秩序的做法已经给美国带来了非自由主义的后果,例如国家权力的集中和宪法的失衡。20年的战争侵蚀了美国的自由和制度,也削弱了美国的国家偿付能力。

在传统主义者看来,美国作为世界秩序的霸主,应当占据单极化主导地位,这是不言而喻的。这主要是源于这些崇拜者仍怀念世界政治中那些短暂的、无法延续的时刻。作为世界秩序管理者的美国渴望获得最强大的全球领导地位,这种雄心壮志往往会夸大其力量和知识。从历史上看,这使美国陷入了很多本可以避免的浪费和不幸。自由秩序的梦想会滋生一种好战的正义感,本能地认为混乱是由于权力的缺失,而根本不考虑审慎的紧缩或调整措施。这事实上局限了我们的想象力和选择权,把外交政策简化为“领导”与“孤立”之间的二元对立。对他们来说,历史的教训是清晰明确的,而且几乎都来自一个特殊案例得出的认识,即两次世界大战之间的孤立主义和绥靖政策是完全失败的。美国一方面将自己塑造成一个具有特殊全球角色和历史使命的自由主义利维坦,但无意中又将自己变成了一个雅各宾派国家(Jacobin state),永远寻求扩大其势力范围,推动政权更迭和革命。一直以来,美国都将问题归咎于美国霸权还远远“不够”。如果我们要树立另一面旗帜来反对特朗普“重返伟大”的诱人承诺,这面旗帜不一定要在旧秩序的基础上修修补补。许多人已经体验过那种秩序:脱离民众的机构,跨国的、非人的资本主义,以及无休止的战争。

如果美国治国之道的终极目的是确保共和体系,包括它的制度、自由生活方式,以及有限政府和宪政体系,因为这不仅对美国本身有益,还可以作为世界的典范,那么美国的现实主义传统做法便是更好的选择。虽然这些也需要特别小心谨慎。正如本书所谈论的一些人很容易感怀过去一样,我们所有人都是如此。在观察这种政治中的怀旧问题时,我们不能预设过去的意识作为行动指导,相反,挖掘历史、试图为未来寻找某种指导意义的过程应该更加丰富,探索更广阔的可能性。

对自由秩序持批判态度的还有学术界的马克思主义、批判主义和后殖民派。53特别是,珍妮·莫尔菲尔德(Jeanne Morefield)认为,那些宣扬并捍卫自由秩序的文学作品,其核心充满着帝国的矛盾,而且还在试图转移人们对这种不可调和性的注意力,其借口就是,无论自由主义采取的权力会导致什么错误、犯罪和灾难,美国总能返璞归真。54莫尔菲尔德的批评与我的观点相似,尽管措辞不同,但都是反对那些提倡秩序却没有足够重视“秩序”的真正历史含义的人。文学批评致力于解放思想。莫尔菲尔德希望通过揭露“秩序”论点的虚伪,为这场批评注入智慧之火,使世界远离帝国主义和国家至上主义(raison d'etat),建立一个崭新的人文主义秩序。

与之不同,这本书并非如此。在古典现实主义的传统中,撕掉委婉的政治话术外衣,目的不是改造,而是揭示无政府世界的残酷现实和制约,以及它所强加的艰难权衡。如果在这种悲观的传统中无法实现解放,如果一些虚伪和残暴是不可避免的,如果国家和它们的统治者无法变“好”,它们至少可以变得更明智、更有自知之明。它们可以培养一种审慎的能力,实行一种更为克制、更有自知之明的强权政治,珍惜权力而不是挥霍它,实施阴谋和竞争,但要避免过度残暴,即便发动战争,也不要摧毁国家,对于美国来说,就是不要破坏共和制度。

在本书第一章“自由秩序的理念”中,作者试图尽可能准确地对自由秩序这一假说进行界定,并对其进行检验,揭示这一假说的实质,指出那些自由秩序的言辞暴露了对帝国的吸引—排斥模式。第二章“黑暗显现”为本书的论点提供了实证基础。通过回顾“秩序”的历史,提出批评观点。作者旨在让大家看到,创造秩序是一个必然带有帝国性和强制性的过程,而这并不符合支持者所留恋的那种以一致性和连续性为特点的强制规则和遵循规则。第三章“粗暴的猛兽”,指出唐纳德·特朗普总统代表的更多是秩序的顶点,而非意外的偏离。虽然在主观上,他和他的反对者将他视为战后传统外交政策的反面,但特朗普反映了两种长久以来存在的趋势:长期战争和寡头政治。第四章“马基雅维利时刻”,展望未来。华盛顿必须考虑其制度如何在日益敌对的世界中生存,而且需要意识到,与自由秩序的主张正好相反,它并不能将世界同化于它的自由价值观。和以前一样,美国将不得不做出艰难的妥协,防止一个更具竞争力的世界破坏它的共和制度。

接下来,我们会首先把自由秩序看作一种对过去的假设、对现在的不满和对未来的药方。

注释

1. Richard Ned Lebow,The Rise and Fall of Political Orders(Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2018),pp.7—8.

2. Tacitus,On the Life and Character of Julius Agricola(ad 98).

3. Robert Gilpin,War and Change in World Politics(Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1981),p.24.

4. “Remarks by President Donald Tusk before the G7 Summit in Charlevoix,Canada”,at https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/06/08/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-before-the-g7-summit-in-charlevoix-canada/.

5. Hedley Bull,The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics(London:Macmillan,1977),p.209.

6. 转引自Phillips Payson O'Brien,British and American Naval Power: Politics and Policy,1900—1936(Westport,CT:Praeger,1998),p.117。

7. Warren Zimmerman,First Great Triumph(New York:Farrar,Straus and Giroux,2002),p.476.

8. UN Special Rapporteur on Unilateral Coercive Measures,“Sanctions on Iran and Cuba Need Phasing Out,Says Expert”,29 July 2015,at https://news.un.org/en/audio/2015/07/602872.在这一点上,我很感谢尼古拉斯·马尔德(Nicolas Mulder)。

9. Stephen Kotkin,“Why Realism Explains the World”,Foreign Affairs 97:4(2018),pp.10—15:p.10.

10. Michael Burke,“Biden:‘The America I see Does Not Wish to Turn Our Back on the World’”,The Hill,17 February 2019.

11. “Democrats and Foreign Policy:There's Something Happening Here”,The Economist,4 May 2019.

12. Julio Rosas,“Joe Biden Says He Wants to Make America Straight Again”,Washington Examiner,25 April 2019.

13. Anne Applebaum,“Is This the End of the West as We Know It?”Washington Post,4 March 2016;Patrick M.Stewart,“Trump and World Order:The Return of Self-Help”,Foreign Affairs 96:2(March/April 2017),pp.52—57;James Kirchick,The End of Europe: Dictators,Demagogues,and the Coming Dark Age(New Haven,CT:Yale University Press,2017).

14. “Is the Liberal Order in Peril?” Foreign Affairs(online),n.d.,at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/liberal-order-peril.

15. Statement of Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bilt,promoting the Declaration of Principles for Freedom,Prosperity and Peace,at https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/brent-scowcroft-center/fsr-initiative/declaration-of-principles.

16. Klaus Schwab,“Globalisation 4.0:The Davos 2019 Manifesto”,at https://www.rappler.com/thought-leaders/220862-davos-2019-manifesto-globalization;Adam Tooze,“Framing Crashed”,at https://adamtooze.com/2019/02/09/framing-crashed-10-a-new-bretton-woods-and-the-problem-of-economic-order-also-a-reply-to-adler-and-varoufakis/.

17. Susan B.Glasser,“John McCain's Funeral Was the Biggest Resistance Gathering Yet”,New Yorker,1 September 2018;Ishaan Tharoor,“Trump,McCain and the Waning of the Liberal Order”,Washington Post,27 August 2018.

18. Charles A.Kupchan,“Unpacking Hegemony:The Social Foundations of Hierarchical Order”,in G.John Ikenberry,Power,Order and Change in World Politics(Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014),pp.19—61:pp.25—27.

19. Patrick O'Brien,“The Pax Britannica and American Hegemony:Precedent,Antecedent or Just Another History?”,in Patrick O'Brien and Armand Clesse,eds.,Two Hegemonies: Britain 1846—1914 and the United States 1941—2001(Aldershot:Ashgate,2002),pp.3—64:pp.3—4.

20. Robert Kagan,The Jungle Grows Back: America and Our Imperilled World(New York:Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group,2018).

21. “Why We Should Preserve International Institutions and Order”,New York Times,23 July 2018.

22. “Petition:Preserving Alliances”,July 2018,at https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSesHdZWxpp13plS4nkLOSMHv4Dg1jaksBrCC6kWv6OfVAmO5g/viewform.

23. Foreign Affairs Select Committee,China and the Rules-Based International System: Sixteenth Report of Session 2017—19 HC 612,4 April 2019.

24. Adam Garfinkle,“Parsing the Liberal International Order”,The American Interest,27 October 2017.

25. Centre for American Progress,“America Adrift:How the US Foreign Policy Debate Misses What Voters Really Want”,5 May 2019,at https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2019/05/05/469218/america-adrift/;Ruth Igielnik and Kim Parker,“Majorities of US Veterans,Public Say the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Were Not Worth Fighting”,Pew Research Center,10 July 2019,at https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/10/majorities-of-u-s-veterans-public-say-the-wars-in-iraq-and-afghanistan-were-not-worth-fighting/.

26. Damir Murasic,“Making up Monsters to Destroy:The Illiberal Challenge”,The American Interest 14:5(2019).

27. Perry Anderson,The H-Word: The Peripeteia of Hegemony(London:Verso,2017),pp.1—4.

28. Joseph Nye,Condoleezza Rice,Nicholas Burns,Leah Bitounis and Jonathon Price,The World Turned Upside Down: Maintaining American Leadership in a Dangerous Age(Aspen,CO:Aspen Institute,2017);Kurt Campbell,Eric Edelman,Michèle Flournoy,et al.,Extending American Power: Strategies to Expand US Engagement in a Competitive World Order(Washington,DC:Centre for a New American Security,May 2016).

29. Kenneth P.Vogel,“Concerned by Trump,Some Republicans Quietly Align with Democrats”,New York Times,24 May 2018;也参见the American Enterprise Institute and the Centre for American Progress,“Partnership in Peril:The Populist Assault on the Transatlantic Community”,at https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2018/07/31/454248/partnership-in-peril/。

30. Stephen Wertheim,“Return of the Neocons”,New York Review of Books,2 January 2019.

31. Julian Borger,“Trump is Building a New Liberal Order,says Pompeo”,Guardian,4 December 2018;Jeffrey Goldberg,“A Senior White House Official Defines the Trump Doctrine:We're America,Bitch”,The Atlantic,11 June 2018.

32. G.John Ikenberry,After Victory: Institutions,Strategic Restraint,and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars(Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,2001);“The Plot Against American Foreign Policy:Can the Liberal Order Survive?” Foreign Affairs 96:3(2017),pp.2—9;(with Daniel Deudney),“The Nature and Sources of Liberal International Order”,Review of International Studies 25(1999),pp.179—196;James Goldgeier,“The Misunderstood Roots of Liberal Order,And Why They Matter Again”,Washington Quarterly 41:3(2018),pp.7—20;Ivo H.Daalder and James M.Lindsay,Empty Throne: America's Abdication of Global Leadership(New York:Public Affairs,2019);Richard N.Haass,“Liberal World Order:R.I.P.”,Project Syndicate,21 March 2018;Robin Niblett,“Liberalism in Retreat:The Demise of a Dream”,Foreign Affairs 96:1(2017),pp.17—24;Kori Schake,America vs The West: Can the Liberal World Order Be Preserved(Penguin:Lowy Institute Paper,2019);Eliot A.Cohen,The Big Stick: The Limits of Soft Power and the Necessity of Military Force(New York:Basic Books,2016);Paul D.Miller,American Power and Liberal Order: A Conservative Internationalist Grand Strategy(Washington,DC:Georgetown University Press,2016);Hal Brands,American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump(Washington,DC:Brookings Institution,2017);“America's Global Order Is Worth Fighting For;The Longest Period of Great-Power Peace in Modern History Is Not a ‘Myth’”,Bloomberg,14 August,2018;David H.Petraeus,“America Must Stand Tall”,Politico,7 February 2017;Joseph S.Nye Jr,“The Rise and Fall of American Hegemony from Wilson to Trump”,International Affairs 95:1(2019),pp.63—80;Robert Kagan,“The Twilight of the Liberal World Order”,in Michael O'Hanlon,ed.,Big Ideas for America(Washington,DC:Brookings Institution,2017),pp.267—75;Edward Luce,“The New World Disorder”,Financial Times,24 June 2017;Bonnie S.Glaser and Gregory Poling,“Vanishing Borders in the South China Sea”,Foreign Affairs 97:3(2018);Daniel Drezner,“Who Is to Blame for the State of the Rules-Based International Order?” Washington Post,5 June 2018;Gideon Rose,“What Obama Gets Right:Keep Calm and Carry the Liberal Order On”,Foreign Affairs 94:5(2015),pp.2—12;Marc Champion,“International(Dis)Order”,Bloomberg,26 September 2018;Hans W.Maull,“The Once and Future Liberal Order”,Survival 61:2(2019),pp.7—32;Michael Fullilove,“The Fading of an Aging World Order”,Financial Times,23 October 2015.一种更偏向不可知论的说法是agnostic account is Rebecca Lissner and Mira Rapp-Hooper,“The Liberal Order is More Than a Myth:But It Must Adapt to the New Balance of Power”,Foreign Affairs 97:4(2018)。

33. G.John Ikenberry,“The End of Liberal Order?” International Affairs 94:1(2018),pp.7—23:p.9.

34. Robert Jervis,“International Primacy:Is the Game Worth the Candle?” International Security 17:4(1993),pp.52—67:pp.52—3.

35. Charles L.Glaser,“A Flawed Framework:Why the Liberal International Order Framework is Misguided”,International Security 43:4(2019),pp.51—87;John Mearsheimer,“Bound to Fail:The Rise and Fall of the Liberal World Order”,International Security 43:4(2019),pp.7—50;Adam Tooze,“Everything You Know About Global Order Is Wrong”,Foreign Policy,30 January,2019;George Friedman,“The Myth of the Liberal International Order;It's Dangerous to Pine for a Time That Never Really Was”,Geopolitical Futures,19 September 2018;Paul Staniland,“Misreading the ‘Liberal Order’:Why We Need New Thinking in American Foreign Policy”,Lawfare,29 July 2018;Graham Allison,“The Truth About the Liberal Order:Why It Didn't Make the Modern World”,Foreign Affairs 97:4(2018),pp.124—133;Amitav Acharya,The End of American World Order(Cambridge:Polity,2014);Stephen M.Walt,“Why I Didn't Sign Up to Defend the International Order”,Foreign Policy,1 August 2018;Jeanne Morefield,“Trump's Foreign Policy Isn't the Problem”,Boston Review,8 January 2019;Stephen Wertheim,“Paeans to the Postwar Order Won't Save Us”,War on the Rocks,6 August 2018;John Mueller,“An American Global Order? Has the US Been Necessary?”,ISSS—IS Annual Conference,November 2018;Christopher Fettweis,“Unipolarity,Hegemony and the New Peace”,Security Studies 26:3(2017),pp.423—451;Patrick Porter,A World Imagined: Nostalgia and Liberal Order,CATO Policy Analysis Number 843(Washington,DC:CATO Institute,June,2018);Naazneen Barma,Ely Ratner and Steven Weber,“The Mythical Liberal Order”,The National Interest 124(2013),pp.56—67;Andrew Bacevich,“The Global Order Myth”,The American Conservative,15 June 2017;Brahma Chellany,“Mirage of a Rules-Based Order”,Japan Times,25 July 2016;Michael Brendan Dougherty,“The Endless Hysteria about the Liberal World Order”,National Review,27 March 2018;Adrian Pabst,Liberal World Order and Its Critics(London:Routledge,2018).

36. Naazneen Barma,Ely Ratner and Steven Weber,“The Mythical Liberal Order”,The National Interest 124(2013),pp.56—67.

37. John Glaser,“The Amnesia of the US Foreign Policy Establishment”,Free Republic,15 March 2019;David C.Hendrikson,Republic in Peril: American Empire and the Liberal Tradition(Oxford:Oxford University Press,2018),p.168.

38. Francis Fukuyama,“America:The Failed State”,Prospect,January 2017.

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44. Max Boot,“Nostalgia Isn't a Foreign Policy”,Commentary,11 November 2015;“The Case for American Empire”,Weekly Standard,15 October 2001;“Why Winning and Losing are Irrelevant in Syria and Afghanistan”,Washington Post,30 January 2019;The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of American Power(New York:Basic Books,2002).

45. Blighty,“The Vote of Shame”,The Economist,30 August 2013.

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47. Emile Simpson,“There's Nothing Wrong with the Liberal Order That Can't Be Fixed by What's Right With It”,Foreign Policy,7 August 2018.

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