Building the Community of Common Destiny between China and Its Neighbors: the Prospect and Policy Suggestion

Dr. Romyen Kosaikanont

Vice President of Mae Fah Luang University;

Acting Dean of School of Liberal Arts and Lecturer in School of Social Innovation, Mae Fah Luang University

 

“The world is gradually shifting from the idea of one country, one goal to one world, one goal. All countries should consider how to cooperate to resolve these issues for equal benefit, to reduce suspicion and to build trust….

…Our regional architecture still lacks balance. Resolving security issues together within the region must be based on a good regional architecture. The end of the Cold War saw this architecture become one of many powers, and there may not yet be any clear regulations or rules, which has resulted in uncertainty and has become an increasing challenge for all the countries of the region, especially small and developing countries.”

General (Retd) Prayut Chan-o-cha

Prime Minister of Thailand

Keynote Address at IISS Shangri-La Dialogue

15th Asia Security Summit, Singapore, 3th June 2016

Introduction

General Prayut Chan-o-cha, Prime Minister of Thailand, delivered a keynote address at International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue where leaders of the ASEAN region gathered in Singapore to discuss regional security. In the address, he suggested that we are living in the decade of uncertainty and that we need new regional architecture that is more balanced with clear regulations or rules. The aforementioned regulations and rules should be inclusive and facilitate a paradigm shift from “one country, one destiny” to “one world, one destiny”. At present, we are leaving the bipolar world behind while moving towards a multipolar world for equal benefi ts, to reduce suspicions and to build trust. Though the keynote address of General Prayut Chan-o-cha is on security issue, it is highly relevant in all kinds of multinational cooperation.

On the global level, the year 2016 is remarkable as we have witnessed various exciting events. Examples include “the Brexit” of British voting out of the European Union, the United States has implemented a rebalancing policy in Asia and advocated the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement free trade policy.

Russia focuses on Asia and the Eurasia Free Trade Area, India has introduced Look East and subsequent Act East policy while China introduced the concept of Community of Common Destiny. All of these exciting happenings can be seen as attempts of various powers to assert new world order.

This paper will explore the building of the Community of Common Destiny between China and its neighbors. It will be examined from the perspective of Thailand. The paper is divided into three main points namely, (i) the context of the Community of Common Destiny, (ii) Thailand's development vision and policy, and (iii) prospect and policy suggestion for the Community of Common Destiny in the making.

The Context of the Community of Common Destiny

The term Community of Common Destiny was first appeared in 2001 in the speech of President Hu Jintao at the 17th National Party Congress in reference to the Mainland's relations with Taiwan (Jin Kai, 2013). The term has also been used by President Xi Jinping in 2012 when he came in power (Li Zhihui, 2015). However, it is unclear what exactly the framework of the Community of Common Destiny covers. Very limited concrete detail on what the Community of Common Destiny has been released. But it is clear that the Community of Common Destiny used by President Hu Jintao is different from that of President Xi Jinping. Regardless to the official explanation of what the Community of Common Destiny is, many believe that it focuses more on economic initiatives and it is an attempt of China to assert itself as a major power in the region (Peter Loftus, 2016). With this note, Community of Common Destiny has often been perceived as either opportunities or threats to the countries within the region. Aksornsri Panichsarn (2014) wrote that diplomats of ASEAN joining the seminar “Forging China-ASEAN Community of Common Destiny, Building a Maritime Silk Road of the 21stCentury” all praised Chinese initiatives that would change the relationship of China and ASEAN from Golden Decade to the Diamond Decade suggested by Prime Minister Li Keqiang. She believes that the Community of Common Destiny may help reduce the confl ict between China and some ASEAN members on the South China Sea issues (Aksornsri, ibid). As for Thailand, apart from bilateral collaboration, Thai government has actively worked with ASEAN. Under ASEAN community, it is likely that the Community of Common Destiny should be welcome though it can be expected that more detail of how it will be implemented and at what speed would be the issues to be further explored.

On the other hand, China, Vietnamese scholar shares rather different view that the Community of Common Destiny would not be possible with unresolved issue of the South China Sea adding that the New Maritime Silk Road can be seen as another hegemonic power that China is spreading in the region (China, 2015). As directly involved in the confl ict, Vietnam, as a member of the ASEAN community, may welcome the Community of Common Destiny in principle by delinking the conflict from the development of collaboration. However, it is quite certain that the detail of the Community of Common Destiny would be further discussed among ASEAN members.

In several occasions after the fi rst mentioning of the Community of Common Destiny in 2012, President Xi has made the keynote speech related to the Community of Common Destiny. During the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference with the theme “Asia's New Future: Towards a Community of Common Destiny”, President Xi has noted that “to build a Community of Common Destiny, we need to seek win-win cooperation and common development. He also emphasized that this vision “not only applies to the economic fi eld, but also to the political, security, cultural and many other fi elds”(Deloitte, 2015). On this note, it can be perceived that China is in the process of the making of the Community of Common Destiny on basis of its principle of peaceful coexistence and it intended to cover comprehensive area not limited only to economic cooperation. That is, the Community of Common Destiny, a holistic policy with China at its heart.

It is speculated that the reasons that the Community of Common Destiny has been proposed at this point in time because of various reasons. Firstly, China has been gaining economic dominance not only in the region but the world. Chinese economy is the second in the world and it is projected that Chinese economy would surpass the USA in a near future. National Bureau of Statistics of China in 2016 suggested that the GDP in 2014 has increased 156 times from 1979. China has also been marked at one point as the country with highest international reserves in the world (Lada Phumas, 2016). At the end of 2015, China has accumulated 3.33 trillion USD in the international reserve (Bongkot Anuroj, 2016). The rise of China occurs against the backdrop of an economic decline in other parts of the world including Japan, USA, and Europe. Besides, China has also accumulated technology and innovations that are at the levels able to share with others. With this, China is ready to assume a more instrumental role on a regional and global stage.

Secondly, China's successful economic development has been built on a unique system of socialism with Chinese characteristics. This can be refl ected in President Xi Jinping's comment that “Some people defi ne reform as changes towards the universal values of the West, the Western political system. This is a stealthy tampering with the concept and a misunderstanding of our reform. Our reform is the reform that keeps us moving toward on the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics.” The system is different from the mainstream development paradigm of Washington Consensus and thus can be advocated as an alternative development approach to the developing countries and the world.

Thirdly, China's rise has been seen as a threat by some superpowers and selected countries. Reactions can be seen in various forms. China, for instance, has been constrained to gain higher voting power in some international organizations such as International Monetary Fund among others. Hence to overcome these constraints, it is making sense that China would like to introduce their own concept of the Community of Common Destiny. New initiatives of China for example the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), hence, has been announced in 2013 at the ASEAN summit. In October, 2014, 22 Asian leaders gathered in Beijing to sign the Memorandum of Understanding for the establishment of the AIIB in fi nancially support to build the infrastructure for the purposes of connectivity within Asia and China.

Fourthly, the introduction of the Community of Common Destiny is being seen as a realization of the China's Dream of great rejuvenation of Chinese nation. By advancing the diplomacy with China's neighboring countries on the principle of peaceful coexistence it is believed to create sound surrounding environment for China's development. With strengthening collaboration and better connectivity with its neighboring countries in all aspects namely social, cultural and economic, it will be a prerequisite for China's greater infl uence in the region. At the same time, China and ASEAN are complimenting each other as engine of growth of the region and the world.

Fifthly, China is facing the problem of over excess of production capacity especially in the construction of infrastructure such as high-speed rail, bridges, roads, information technology among others. Another problem is the fact that China has accumulated high international reserve currency which is also seen as a challenge for China. Besides, Chinese products have also encountered multiple exports obstacles including Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duties (AD/CVD). Therefore, China is building the community that allows truly peaceful coexistence, relocating production bases in some sectors, and transfer of technology and specialization to the needed countries.

What exactly does the Community of Common Destiny covers? Peter Loftus (2016) suggested that the Community of Common Destiny contains two main pillars namely the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R). The AIIB is established to financially support the construction of the infrastructural connectivity of the Belt and Road Initiative centering on China. Up to this point, there are laying out only the principles and core values of Community of Common Destiny but not clear rules and regulations suggested.

In the making of Community of Common Destiny, however, China has been prepared, positioned and assigned different parts of the country to serve in different roles under the grand B&R Initiatives. For instance, Yunnan is positioned to serve as a bridge linking South Asia and Southeast Asia, Guangxi is linking China with ASEAN, Chengdu is the largest center for rail transportation in the west of China, Xi'an is the origin of the old Silk Road and is positioned to be the center of the north western region of China. In short, though the Community of Common Destiny may be limited in details but the principle of win-win, coexistence is in place (Lada Phumas, 2016).

In short, the Community of Common Destiny is a concept proposed by China to offer alternative cooperation in the making. Though there have been no clear rules or regulations but its values have been put on a peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation. The Community of Common Destiny also focuses on facilitating the construction of the infrastructural activities along the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) while utilizing a large amount of the International Reserve to finance the construction of the B&R Initiative through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). This grand strategy of Community of Common Destiny is to ensure sound environment for China's own development, lessening the pressure of the domestic challenge of China caused by the New Normal while proposing that the rules and regulations are in the making for the common interests of the region.

Thailand's Development Vision and Policy

Thailand has put it nation in the track of modern development since the 1950s, after the World War II, or when the first Economic Development Plan was drafted under the supervision of the World Bank. The National Socio-Economic and Development Board who has served as a national think tank and a body whose responsibility is to draft the national development plan has been large influenced by the Washington Consensus or neo-liberalism. Thailand's development since 1950s can be divided into 3 stages classifi ed by the engine of growth. These three stages are an agricultural production driven, industrial and mechanized agricultural production driven, and heavy industrial driven with foreign direct investment as engine of growth respectively (Thansetakij, 2016).

In 2015, Thai government under the Premiership of General Prayut Chano-cha has, for the first time in its history, announced the 20 years national vision and strategy of “Stability, Prosperity, and Sustainability”. The long term vision and strategy is launched to address the problem of the middle income trap. In order to overcome the middle income trap, the government aims at restructuring the economy, industry and manufacturing, as well as promoting the infrastructural development for better regional connectivity and for better market access. Soraphol Tulasatien (2015), the economist from the Ministry of Finance has spelled out during his talk, at the international roundtable discussion on “The New Maritime Silk Road from ASEAN members' perspectives”, that Thailand requires transportation infrastructural upgrades as a prerequisite to enhance national development. The infrastructure especially rail, road, and port are in need of upgrade and Thailand is lacking funding (Soraphol, ibid).

In order to restructure the economy, industry and manufacturing sector, the government has formulated Thailand 4.0 economic model to develop the country into a value-based economy, adopting highly advanced innovations as an engine of growth. Thailand 4.0 economic model promotes the development mechanism of public-private-people partnership hoping to increase Thailand's comparative advantage and competitiveness. Under Thailand 4.0, five new growth industries are promoted namely (i) Food, agriculture and biotechnology (ii) health, wellness and biomedical technology, (iii) smart devices, robotics and mechatronics, (iv) digital, Internet of Things and embedded technology and (v) creative, culture and high-value services.

The plan to achieve the goals includes many new initiatives. For instance, Board of Investment (BOI) has set new rules and regulations to attract new investments both domestic and foreign direct investors in the fi ve aforementioned areas. Special Border Economic Zones have been established in 10 provinces all over the countries to have access to cross border resources including labour. Eastern Economic Corridor is being discussed in order to expand the Eastern Seaboard which already has a good access to the international access.

In order to materialize this plan, the government realized that the country are falling shorts in various fronts namely capital and investment, innovations as well as a need to upgrade ICT and infrastructural system especially rail system connecting various Special Border Economic Zones, Eastern Economic Corridor and Industrial Estates. The government has been trying to lessen the short falls by working collaboratively with other countries that have specialization in those areas.

Although Thailand is a small country in terms of geography, population and size of economy, the foreign policy of Thailand is to prioritize the engagement with the neighboring countries as well as strategically engaging with superpowers (USA, China, and Japan) who are present in the region in a balanced manner, according to the Five-Year Foreign Affairs Strategic Plan (2015-2018). As Thailand is positioning itself as the centre of the ASEAN and GMS region, Thailand is willing to work as an honest broker bridging superpowers with the regional cooperation. Thailand is also willing to work closely with strategic partners such as India, Russia, ROK and ASEAN, using the advantage position of Thailand in negotiating and balancing relationship with other superpowers, as well as harvesting the fruits of relationship with Thailand's strategic partners.

To pursue the goal of coming out of the middle income trap, Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand, Somkid Jatusripitak has promoted the Thailand 4.0 plan and invited China to invest in Thailand during his offi cial visit to China during 26th-30th June, 2016. He suggested that with Thailand's strategic geographical position of being the center of Greater Mekong Subregion and ASEAN, it is hoped that the meeting has gained trust and China feels at ease to work collaboratively as a strategy partner in developing CLMV, hence, resulting into win-win collaboration. During this visit, Thai government also has organized the event to discuss and invite the major Chinese investors to invest in the 5 areas under Thailand 4.0 showcasing that China can use Thailand as a production base for ASEAN market and the world.

China has been one of many targeted countries that Thai government has approached and invited to invest under Thailand 4.0 economic development model. The reasons China is of Thai government's interest are (i) Thailand and China has a long established people-to-people relation. In the year 2015, Thailand and China have celebrated 40 years anniversary of diplomatic relations. Often than not, it has been claimed that Thailand and China's relation is exceptional as it has strong people-to-people relationship (Guan Mu, 2015). Strong people-to-people relationship is a good foundation to work collaboratively. (ii) Thailand and China are highly interdependent on each other in terms of economics as Thailand has China as the second largest export values while having China as the largest import values (Bongkot Anuroj, 2016). Thai economy has also generated high income from Chinese tourists. In 2016, it is estimated that the income from Chinese tourists alone will rise up to 2.3 trillion Baht (Lada Phumas, 2016). (iii) Geographically, Thailand is situated very close to China and has potential to work collaboratively. China especially, southern of China, sees Thailand as an open access to the sea. (iv) there have already been a well establishment of diplomatic ties between two countries. Besides, various mechanisms in promoting the diplomatic ties have been created i.e. a Joint Committee and Comprehensive is set up to monitor the overview of policy development.

Prospect of China-Thailand Cooperation in Seizing the Opportunity to Work for Mutual Interest

It can be seen from the discussion above that China and Thailand share common interests in their development pathway. That is to create a sound environment for China's development. Thailand can serve and has already served as a production base for various Chinese investors such as Haier, SAIC, and various solar and rubber tires companies for the ASEAN and international market. From this respect, China needs Thailand as much as Thailand needs China for their development. Thailand 4.0 policy's needs require capital investment, transfer of knowledge and innovation on both infrastructure as well as production in the 5 areas mentioned. Hence, meaningful collaboration between China and Thailand and China and the region is crucial for regional development.

As the Community of Common Destiny is in the making, the question remains to be answered is how to make Community of Common Destiny truly common, meaningful, and inclusive.

In order to build Community of Common Destiny to be truly common, meaningful and inclusive, it is recommended that;

a. China should play a facilitating role in defining the common destiny. It should be aware that various countries within the region have different development agenda and different levels of the development progress. Hence, to build truly sustainable Community of Common Destiny, China should concern about the developmental paces ensuring that all the countries have an opportunity to truly share their own and common interests, contributing in the process of the making of the Community of Common Destiny so that all can reap mutual benefi ts from this common destiny. Hence the process should be gradual and China should be more sincere in accommodating the common destiny and different interests of all countries within the region.

b. The values and norms of the Community of Common Destiny based on peaceful coexistence suggested by China is already a good foundation. To enhance this, in the process of the making of the Community of the Common Destiny, different countries should be treated with respects, complimentary of each other, fl exible and open-minded. The making should be carried out based on mutual trust, mutual interests and mutual benefi ts.

c. The Community of Common Destiny must target an inclusive growth for sustainability as China needs this region and this region needs China. With a stronger and more superior position, China should provide appropriate supports gearing towards inclusive growth and common destiny. For instance, supports in terms of research and development, technology transfer, funding for infrastructural development in some needed countries.

d. Where possible challenges may occur as a subsequent of the Community of Common Destiny implementation, the Community should be willing to work collaboratively and sincerely to deal with the arisen difficulties.

e. Good monitoring and evaluation mechanism should be in place. As the Community of Common Destiny is a new concept in the making, hence there should be good monitoring and evaluation mechanism to follow up the plan and make the policies understood for better planning and smooth cooperation.

f. It should be aware that the world is at the multipolar era, hence, the Community of Common Destiny should not be seen as the only cooperation. Rather it should be fl exible for the countries to engage and rebalance with other superpowers or other cooperation in order to avoid repeating hegemonization.

Peaceful rise of China is being welcome and accepted by many countries against the backdrop of the shift of the bipolar to multipolar world. With this opportunity, China must act as a responsible international player aiming for inclusive and sustainable development in the region. China should actively engage with ASEAN regardless to the enthusiasm or readiness of different countries within the region. China should insist and contribute to the region by serving as an engine of growth during the diffi cult current global economic conditions. China should also continue to engage in the region even there is a pertaining issue of trust with various countries.

References

Aksornsri Panichsarn, 2014.Maritime Silk Road in Xi Jinping Era. Krungthep Durakij. Bangkok.

Bongkot Anuroj,2016.Thailand-China Investment Cooperation Promotion Strategy in the Era of Asia.BOI.Thailand.

Chinh Nguyen, 2015.New Maritime Silk Road from Vietnamese Perspective.Paper presented at the New Maritime Silk Road: ASEAN perspectives. The Roundtable Discussion held at Mae Fah Luang University, 19 November, 2015 on the occasion of the 40th Anniversary of Thailand-China Diplomatic Relations.

Deloitte,2015.Asia's New Future:Towards a Community of Common Destiny.Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference Report 2015. Deloitte.

Jin Kai, 2013. Can China Build a Community of Common Destiny?The Diplomat. November 28. Available at: http://thediplomat.com/2013/11/can-china-build-a-community-ofcommon-destiny/.

Lada Phumas,2016.Direction of Foreign Policy of Thailand towards China after 2015. Individual Study Report submitted as part of the Executive Diplomatic Training Programme, Dhevavongsevaroprakarn Institute.

Li Zhihui, 2015.Xi's Diplomacy:Peaceful Development in a Community of Common Destiny, Xinhua News Agency.September 11.Available at: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-09/11/c_134615486.htm.

Soraphol Tulasatien, 2015.New Maritime Silk Road from Thailand Perspective. Paper presented at the New Maritime Silk Road: ASEAN perspectives. The Roundtable Discussion held at Mae Fah Luang University, 19 November, 2015 on the occasion of the 40th Anniversary of Thailand-China Diplomatic Relations.

Thansettakij,2016.New Version of “Thailand 4.0”.Available at: www.thansettakij.com.30 April, 2016.